Amidst all the debate re the Ukraine debacle there are numerous individuals who have put themselves forward as experts on a nation they had not considered at any time before. I am one of those! However, amongst the noise we often see real experts, such as Justin Bronk, who's article I have linked to, explaining the mystery of the disappearing Russian Airforce. This is well worth read, and I notice others now saying simiar things. The first thing the 'allies,' (for 'allies' read 'USA') did when entering Iraq was to send in the aircraft to bomb radio masts, radar and other technical weaponry, thus 'blinding the foe' and curbing his anti-air and other defences. This has not succeeded in Ukraine. Indeed, for the most part the Russian air force has had limited operation here, and has suffered many losses of attacking aircraft and Helicopters when it has been in action. Now they are tending to operate at night to avoid incoming Sam missiles thus lessening the pilots awareness of the ground situation, a ground they have little knowledge off and training for. On the borders however a great many 'powerful' aircraft sit doing nothing.
Russian pilots are not as well trained, have limited opportunities to fly, less than half the flying time of Nato forces, and it is possible that the maintainance is not what it ought to be. Using all the aircraft in determined 'push' might bring results by overwhelming the enemy, but this does not appear to be on the agenda. Do they have enough missiles, bombs, trained pilots? Are the pilots reluctant to fly on death missions? Could it be the organisation, linked to corruption, has ruined the effectiveness of the air force?
Russian tanks and other equipment are also finding problems. We have seen many burnt out, hit by 'Stinger' and other missiles, 'Molotov Cocktails,' and other weapons. Quite a few have been stolen by tractor drivers, others recovered, in good condition, from young Russian soldiers who have run away or surrendered. Such tanks, the Ukraining Tax Office has declared, are not liable for tax purposes, have as many as you like! Many captured Russians have not eaten for several days, food is scarce, and information and fuel unavailable. Logistics is not known for much glory, but without proper logistics, providing ammunition, weapons, food, water, fuel, and whatever else is required, the army will come to a halt. The Ukrainians have taken the euqipment, fed the soldiers, and allowed them to call home to mother.
What all this shows is an army based on numerical, not quality strength. One year conscripts, often untrained, put into action on 'exercises,' and finding themselves under fire from determined defenders. The corruption that has seen much equipment sold off, quality control failing, and aged, or inept equipment failing those that seek to make use of it.
The real army experts, who I am unable to link to, are beginning to hope that if the Ukrainians can continue the fight another few days the Russian attack will be stopped. This would have repercussions back home. The defeat, for that is what it would be, of the Russian forces could lead to an uprising in the many varied and unhappy states, especially Chechenya. People at home will still complain as the economy has collapsed, shops and banks will fail, and TV and media merely spout Putins words. This may mean his end.
However, Putin is a calculating, cold man. Image is important and this image is not a good one. He may turn to nuclear weapons, hopefully the Generals will not allow this, or even end himself. All rather hopefull ideas. Putin has been around a long time, knows Russia, knows his options and will be calculating them now. Like Adolf Hitler he is not a man to surrender. Whether his army or airforce fall apart or not, he may be banking on a Naval success at Odessa now. That may continue the struggle for another day.
Where is Jesus in all this?
He is where he always is, wherever his people are, Jesus is there. Many Christians, of various denominations, are tending wounded, sorting the donations that have flooded into the country, and aiding the population around the country. Churches are centres of aid distribution. shelter and welfare.
Jesus himself, by his Holy Spirit will be calling people on both sides to know and understand their sinful nature, revealed surely in such wars? He wishes them to recognise his death and resurrection on their behalf, taking the power of sin and setting them free from its hold on them. Afterwards, we will hear many tales of how Jesus has been seen with his people in the midst of this conflict. These stories may not make the daily press, but as in all wars will be found in lives changed by his love.
On a slightly different topic, some see this as a 'religious war.' This may not make sense to some but this article makes an interesting case for understanding a major strand in the thinking that motivates Putin and many others in this area.
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