Ukraine Thoughts

Amidst all the debate re the Ukraine debacle there are numerous individuals who have put themselves forward as experts on a nation they had not considered at any time before.  I am one of those!  However, amongst the noise we often see real experts, such as Justin Bronk, who's article I have linked to, explaining the mystery of the disappearing Russian Airforce.  This is well worth  read, and I notice others now saying simiar things.

The first thing the 'allies,' (for 'allies' read 'USA') did when entering Iraq was to send in the aircraft to bomb radio masts, radar and other technical weaponry, thus 'blinding the foe' and curbing his anti-air and other defences.  This has not succeeded in Ukraine.  Indeed, for the most part the Russian air force has had limited operation here, and has suffered many losses of attacking aircraft and Helicopters when it has been in action.  Now they are tending to operate at night to avoid incoming Sam missiles thus lessening the pilots awareness of the ground situation, a ground they have little knowledge off and training for.  On the borders however a great many 'powerful' aircraft sit doing nothing.

Russian pilots are not as well trained, have limited opportunities to fly, less than half the flying time of Nato forces, and it is possible that the maintainance is not what it ought to be.  Using all the aircraft in determined 'push' might bring results by overwhelming the enemy, but this does not appear to be on the agenda.  Do they have enough missiles, bombs, trained pilots?  Are the pilots reluctant to fly on death missions?  Could it be the organisation, linked to corruption, has ruined the effectiveness of the air force?    

Russian tanks and other equipment are also finding problems.  We have seen many burnt out, hit by 'Stinger' and other missiles, 'Molotov Cocktails,' and other weapons.  Quite a few have been stolen by tractor drivers, others recovered, in good condition, from young Russian soldiers who have run away or surrendered.  Such tanks, the Ukraining Tax Office has declared, are not liable for tax purposes, have as many as you like!  Many captured Russians have not eaten for several days, food is scarce, and information and fuel unavailable.  Logistics is not known for much glory, but without proper logistics, providing ammunition, weapons, food, water, fuel, and whatever else is required, the army will come to a halt.  The Ukrainians have taken the euqipment, fed the soldiers, and allowed them to call home to mother.    

What all this shows is an army based on numerical, not quality strength.  One year conscripts, often untrained, put into action on 'exercises,' and finding themselves under fire from determined defenders.  The corruption that has seen much equipment sold off, quality control failing, and aged, or inept equipment failing those that seek to make use of it.  

The real army experts, who I am unable to link to, are beginning to hope that if the Ukrainians can continue the fight another few days the Russian attack will be stopped.  This would have repercussions back home.  The defeat, for that is what it would be, of the Russian forces could lead to an uprising in the many varied and unhappy states, especially Chechenya.  People at home will still complain as the economy has collapsed, shops and banks will fail, and TV and media merely spout Putins words.  This may mean his end.  

However, Putin is a calculating, cold man.  Image is important and this image is not a good one.  He may turn to nuclear weapons, hopefully the Generals will not allow this, or even end himself.  All rather hopefull ideas.  Putin has been around a long time, knows Russia, knows his options and will be calculating them now.  Like Adolf Hitler he is not a man to surrender.  Whether his army or airforce fall apart or not, he may be banking on a Naval success at Odessa now.  That may continue the struggle for another day.

 

 

Where is Jesus in all this?

He is where he always is, wherever his people are, Jesus is there.   Many Christians, of various denominations, are tending wounded, sorting the donations that have flooded into the country, and aiding the population around the country.  Churches are centres of aid distribution. shelter and welfare. 

Jesus himself, by his Holy Spirit will be calling people on both sides to know and understand their sinful nature, revealed surely in such wars?  He wishes them to recognise his death and resurrection on their behalf, taking the power of sin and setting them free from its hold on them.  Afterwards, we will hear many tales of how Jesus has been seen with his people in the midst of this conflict.  These stories may not make the daily press, but as in all wars will be found in lives changed by his love.

On a slightly different topic, some see this as a 'religious war.'  This may not make sense to some but this article makes an interesting case for understanding a major strand in the thinking that motivates Putin and many others in this area.   

 

Friday Wander

Wandering about Camolodunum today I discovered the Orthodox Church of St Helen tucked away round the back streets.  Greek Orthodox do appear in many byways in the UK, one in Bayswater was a large and wealthy church with all the top people attending, this sadly is somewhat run down today.  The picture makes it look better than it is (adjusting white balance to shade does this) and I was disappointing for the people there as it must cost a bit to maintain.
I was glad of the cool rest on a muggy day and took one or two shots and sat and looked around me. As the do the place was covered with icons, something I can never comprehend.  To me the book says read the book, baptism and Lords table, anything else, no matter how long it has been in vogue, is needless.  Yet in Orthodox circles such abound.  I wanted to take a few more shots but was disturbed by some unsmiling Mediterranean patrons who arrived, mother kissing several icons, dad another, all glaring at stranger.  I attempted to exchange a few words but was not made welcome and moved elsewhere.

The church was originally built in the eighth century possibly by King Offa of Mercia (the English Midlands) who had overlordship here.  The building was erected upon the foundations of a Roman theatre, this being the actors end, the ground rising behind.  Just a few doors up there is a small unopen museum where some remains can be glimpsed as can this model.

After the Boudicca revolt, she was upset when the Roman governor slapped her around, raped her daughters and grabbed her land, she was irked enough to burn down Verulanium (St Albans) Londinium (London) and Camolodunum (Colchester) and all those within, so the Romans strengthened the walls of the town, butchered most of her people and settled down in their new theatre.  Walls around the town were added quickly, just in case.
So the church was built on the foundations of the ruin and thin red Roman bricks can be seen in the walls.  Something seen on so many churches in Essex, old Roman villas are often reused. 
The Normans rebuilt what is now known as Colchester castle, although it was never really such, and around 1079 rebuilt the church which was a bit run down.  The reformation removed all the needless stuff and the building served many purposes until once again restored during Victorian days.  The Orthodox looking for a building now rent this from the Anglican owners and this gets used regularly after some years of standing empty or being used as a store.  How can such old buildings be used this way? 
Some believe St Helen, the mother of Constantine was born in King Coel's Castle, Colchester Castle, and this may be true I know not, she was probably born in Asia minor however.  She dug deep under Constantine's original Church of the Holy Sepulchre and found pieces of the 'Holy Cross.'  I have been down the steps leading to this area and have my doubts personally.  The idea of his mum with pick and shovel digging down intrigues me however.  British connection exists with this pair however as Constantine was declared Emperor while at York while his father Constantius Chlorus was governor of Britain.
Typical Yorkies!
The East Saxons living here by the way gave us the term 'Essex' and the present Essex County badge features three Seax's, the curved sword loved by the locals at the time. Some would love having one today if you ask my opinion.

Standing outside the 'castle' today you get a real understanding of the defensive position.  High on hills on three sides once the Roman walls went up it was very strong indeed.  The Romans of course never took the place by force, the locals in Kent and Essex welcomed the advantages Rome could bring and those that didn't got chopped.  The town had many Romanised locals and ex-soldiers residing their in safety until the man upset Boudicca.   After that a more Roman approach was adopted.

The comparison between Colchester and Chelmsford intrigued me today.  Chelmsford, the County Town (now City) is boring, however it is clean for the most part and while there are a few dregs walking the streets on the whole it is quite decent.  Colchester on the other hand is at first sight dingy, crowded and features many who appear either disreputable or had great social needs.
I have never seen beggars in Chelmsford but they exist in Colchester.  There are a great number who at first sight would be happy to appear on the 'Jeremy Kyle' show, other painted hussies of unclear age look like they have walked out of 'Eastenders' after having received too much make up and clothes clearly too young and too small for their wrinkles.  The nature of the narrow Roman like streets does not help even if it lends more attractiveness to the town than you find in Chelmsford.  Here at least a wide variety of small shops exist, some prospering for a decent time, but a dreich day gives the place a dingy look.
Having said that the area on the other side of the High Street slipping steeply downhill contains many houses going back hundreds of years, or at least newer homes built in similar style, this area known as the 'Dutch Quarter' after the Fleming's and others from France and Flanders escaping Spanish or other oppression in the fifteenth century.  Much of Essex gained from these immigrants, most of whom were weavers or dealers in the wool and cloth trade.  We might benefit from those immigrants arriving today by the way.   
Strangely I prefer the variety of shops in Colchester, many of them and a good selection, but it is a bit in need of a good clean.  Chelmsford has its uses but it is boring, just a big shopping centre and little else.

On the wall of one of those houses I found this and it reminded me of those similar signs once used in days before a fire service.  The householder would insure his house against fire with one company, a sign would be placed on the wall, if a fire broke out he would call the company and men would arrive to save the house.  No sign, no firefighting!  Edinburgh I believe was the first city to introduce a proper fire service, and I am not surprised.