Viral Panic is Catching

My intention was to rise early, I tend to rise near 6 am in Spring like weather, wander around Tesco as soon as it opened and miss the virus laden crowds.  I awoke around 5 am, dozed through the World Service News, the Shipping Forecast, (In days of yore Alvin Liddel would end the late night Shipping Forecast with "Goodnight Gentlemen, and good fishing."  Not enough boats out there now to make it worthwhile,especially as they only speak Spanish."), the 'Farming Today' girls, always girls while the farmers are always men, and then just about six I managed to actually rise out of the pit. 
This is not the time to take a 'selfie.'
My plans died as the rain came down.  It continued well into the morning so breakfast was taken and plans to return to bed wandered through my mind.  However just about 11 am I actually made it out, the rain had stopped, as had the postman, wet, desperate to go home and enjoy the day, and with no mail for me.  
Trudging gaily down the Avenue, passing a woman who gave me a look of fear, either because she thought I was bad or she saw me cough, why fear missus, over the road stands the huge Police Station!  Another neighbour ignored me, his wife does not like me, and I wandered into the throng attending Tesco.
For a laugh I looked for 'paracetamol,' the empty shelves were a giggle, no soap on the other side bar the expensive stuff no-one wants.  I suggested they claim bleach is in short supply and they could get rid off all the plastic bottles full that were on display. 
Gathering my few needs while trolleys barged into me the drivers distracted by pig ignorance and stupidity, I made my way to the checkout via the beer stall.  Even there several sections were empty, deliberate I reckon, some shops do this to ensure stocks and to stop dafties taking everything.  At the checkout it intrigued me that football is suspended because of the fear of passing on virii.  Yet some experts claim it is not easy to catch virii in such crowds, it comes via face to face contact and here the girls, and its mostly girls, though some Saturday lads are on, the girls face people all day! Now who is in the most danger?  Football crowds or such women?
I coughed cheerfully over the Lesbian like lass who cheerily threatened to 'Nutt me' as I packed my bag.  I like this shop, proper women.  We debated the crap in the 'up market' Saturday press, neither of us willing to pay £500 for a pair of boots as in last weeks 'Times.'  I chose the 'Guardian' today, £3:40!  So that I have plenty sections to throw away during the week.   
I jostled my way out the only entrance, in amongst short sighted people who think you and everyone else will get out off their way, clambered down the steps, checked the skies and headed home avoiding the pleasures off the Saturday Market.  Few stalls out today and not too many people around either.  All at home stuffing toilet rolls into cupboards or under beds. 

             New Scientist

I must wash my hands before writing this.  
This new bug is indeed dangerous, and I am probably the one to get it!  My bug returned this week, usual symptoms, and hopefully will be gone by tomorrow, but why does it keep returning?  Especially when I have had lots to do this week and little energy when required.  I am going to demand out church seeks a person with the gifts of healing, for others sake obviously...

This I found on Twitter this morning and may be worth a read.

Professor Ian Donald @iandonald_psych

Psychologist: Social, & Environmental research, & behavioural factors in Anti-Microbial Resistance. Emeritus Professor, University of Liverpool.

1. The govt strategy on Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.

5:32 PM · Mar 13, 2020·

2. This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . .

3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.

4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

5. That's herd immunity. Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving.

6. That balance is the big risk. All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs.

7.The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed.

8. Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this.

9. The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable

10. After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve.

11. BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will.

12. The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to reemergence of infections.

13. Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise. That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable

14. As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one.

15. This is probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It relies on a lot of assumptions, so it would be good to know what they are - especially behavioral.

Most encouraging, it's way too clever for Boris Johnson to have had any role in developing.